Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 10.537973 12.341150 14.317240 16.637840 19.282349 22.195936 25.642610
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 7.844356 10.313907 13.295232 17.132145 21.908964 27.627543 34.955610
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.147969 8.939720 12.601531 17.690042 24.500658 33.214674 45.104984
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.756410 7.579790 11.569478 17.500926 25.951532 37.390816 53.839273
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.635028 6.314374 10.371958 16.787889 26.455665 40.210498 60.912036
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.850849 5.368107 9.432149 16.228678 26.996724 43.004996 68.076361
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.384743 4.829318 9.007897 16.348790 28.496118 47.247200 77.621853
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.959620 4.263999 8.428891 16.101416 29.333788 50.495968 85.872046
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.767865 4.089734 8.488553 16.919131 31.963307 56.728712 99.196683
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.545405 3.804632 8.292500 17.239264 33.750096 61.708194 110.850599
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.330443 3.487009 7.978104 17.285597 35.034481 65.921202 121.515801
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.152898 3.211867 7.699826 17.352165 36.338500 70.236700 132.618018
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.093304 3.208692 8.001001 18.633034 40.092099 79.223672 152.555019
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.996757 3.095223 8.050431 19.413458 42.980384 86.919628 170.835512
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.906255 2.976583 8.069140 20.130094 45.811926 94.726481 189.852805
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.774062 2.710927 7.700867 19.954504 46.822293 99.215948 203.158041
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.631640 2.375068 7.100203 19.167761 46.472799 101.072976 211.702065
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.521158 2.102022 6.603814 18.544487 46.386863 103.403717 221.251328
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.458321 1.963768 6.435491 18.681509 47.963423 109.127808 237.646032
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.389779 1.784130 6.119151 18.404136 48.575177 112.928819 250.507625
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.367983 1.767472 6.264202 19.323653 52.012350 122.775125 275.909929
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.331938 1.685309 6.200616 19.683475 54.162634 130.049468 296.522941
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.292235 1.575256 6.031493 19.735574 55.579474 135.851905 314.462816